Gross domestic product is a boring indicator, but it is more effective than others at measuring the health of the economy. As much as it hurts us to say it, the GDP has certainly not grown significantly. Quite the opposite, it is difficult to keep track of the many crises we have experienced recently.

The average salary in Belarus is not only an economic indicator, but also a cultural meme and political talking point. The struggle for "five hundred dollars for all" has lasted a very long time. Unfortunately, although there have been times when the average salary has reached this point, it seems to inevitably come back down.

External debt is perhaps one of the greatest threats to the Belarusian economy. The more dependent on foreign funding Belarus becomes, the less stable our economy will be, especially if the situation in the external environment also worsens.

Dependence on the Russian market is the bane of Belarusian officials and economists, a problem exacerbated by the decrease in Russian purchasing power and growth of competition in the Russian market and limitations to access to it. Therefore, Belarus is at least formally seeking to diversify its partners for export in order to reduce its dependence on the Russian market.

Diversification is one of the most frequently repeated words of the Belarusian establishment. The more countries we export goods and services to, the less vulnerable we are to Russian crises (or trade wars).

We asked the experts if the Belarusian economy would ever see reforms aimed at improving its economic efficiency. By improvement of economic efficiency, we mean changes focused on speeding up economic growth, increasing household income, optimising expenses in the public sector, increasing labour efficiency, and raising international assessments of economic development. According to our findings, any economic reforms in Belarus are not predicted to be major.

For Belarus, as well as for other countries, demographic load (the ratio of people of working to non-working age) means a lot. If the population decreases, the demographic load will probably increase.

The level of development of a state (and society) is reflected in how prepared it is to accept different minorities. We asked experts to assess on a scale of 1 to 10 the degree to which Belarus respects various minority groups (people with disabilities; sexual, religious and other minorities), and whether we should expect positive changes. The most likely scenario is that the situation won’t get any worse; according to the second-most likely scenario there could be small improvements.

Ideally, solidarity should permeate all levels of society, acting as a foundational value not only for the civil society community, but for the whole country. We asked experts about the current level of mutual assistance in Belarus and what it would look like in five years. Things won’t get worse: the level of mutual assistance will probably even grow.

In many countries there is a clear divide between the capital and the regions when it comes to income. However, in Belarus this difference is particularly stark. Minsk absorbs resources from the entire country while the situation in the regions gets worse and worse.

This year we have decided not to rely on the Global Gender Gap Index (the World Economic Forum study which we used last year). This is because Belarus’s score was artificially inflated (for example, by setting a quota for women members of parliament). Therefore, we have created our own scale to see how common discrimination and limitations on the ground of sex are in Belarus. Over the next five years, it is unlikely that gender inequality will increase. Instead, it will either remain at the current level or society will become a little more equal.

The ageing of Belarusian society means that more has to be spent on medicine. As the budget of Belarus has seen better times, a larger portion of it is being devoted to healthcare. Will this trend continue over the next five years?

The amount of state money spent on science clearly shows whether its economic agents see research and development as an engine of the economy. Unfortunately, Belarus is not a country where such expenditures are high. States such as Norway or the Netherlands spend about 2% of GDP on research and development, while Belarus spends 3-4 times less.

For better or worse, scientific development needs funding in the long-term. In this area, budget expenditure is especially important, given that half of the Belarusian economy still belongs to the state. Sadly, the pool of available funds for science has dried up significantly over the last few years.

The number of applications for patents measures new ideas from scientists. Unfortunately, in recent years, this number has been decreasing in Belarus. Today Belarusians apply for patents 10 times less frequently than Poles (although the size of the population should also be taken into account).

Belarusian universities really want to rank among the best in the world. This is not only a question of prestige, but also the attractiveness of the educational services market. However, only one Belarusian University – the Belarusian State University – made it to the top 500 in one rating. It got 354th place in the QS World University Rankings.

Unfortunately, many foreign students who come to study in Belarus are not here for a prestigious or high-quality education, but rather to “buy” a diploma. Nevertheless, they bring money to the country which is spent on studying and living expenses in Belarus. They also contribute to the internalisation of Belarusian education.

This year, we have decided to measure the quality of the Belarusian education system in comparison with three neighboring countries: Poland and Lithuania (examined together), and Russia, as Belarusian students headed abroad mostly go to these three countries. By quality of education, we mean the depth and relevance of acquired knowledge, the degree of development and relevance of obtained skills in international assessments and rankings, and the demand for trained professionals. Unfortunately, according to Belarusian experts, the quality of education in these countries is higher than in Belarus, and the difference may even increase.

This is not the first decade that Belarus is supposedly fighting against corruption, nor is it the first decade that it has failed in this endeavour, albeit doing better than Ukraine or Russia. Ratings remain significantly lower than our Western neighbors. We combined the ratings of two organisations (Transparency International and Freedom House) to create our own scale from 0 (perfect condition) to 10 (the worst condition). Here is the result.

National identity is a huge sore point and perhaps our biggest problem. We asked analysts to assess the current state of consolidation and identity and predict at what point we would be in five years. According to the survey, the situation may improve slightly.

An active civil society is an essential element of democracy. We created an indicator for the non-profit sector based on estimates by USAID and Freedom House on a scale of 1 to 7 (where 1 is a perfect state featuring very favourable conditions for the development of civil society, and 7 is a complex condition with extremely unfavourable conditions for the development of civil society).

After Russia’s annexation of Crimea, many wrote that Belarus’s foreign policy would move further and further away from union with Russia, and many wondered in which directions Belarusian foreign policy would head. However, our survey shows that preserving the status quo or even closer rapprochement with Russia is the most likely scenario for the next five years.

The Belarusian authorities (including President Alexander Lukashenko) have been warming up to future transformation of the political system for several years now, stating that Belarus will hold a referendum on a new constitution. So far, these statements have not had any concrete results, so there is definite skepticism among experts about whether there will be change. However, experts believe that the possibility of some form of reform is more likely now. The question here is mostly the nature of this reform – whether it will strengthen the government or the parliament.

The Belarusian parliament has long been a "sleeping institution" where not much happens. However, over the past several years, the House of Representatives has begun to show signs of life. What’s more, the authorities periodically declare that they are considering a mixed parliamentary election, in which half of the deputies would be elected from party lists. But will the party system be reorganized in the next five years? Experts believe that this reform will most likely not take place. Nevertheless, we should not completely disregard the possibility of reorganization of the party system, although it is also possible that such reorganization would have no real results.