The Index of the Future of Belarus

An expert survey by the Center for New Ideas

Although the future is often perceived in abstract terms, "tomorrow" is not composed of fantasies, accidents or black swans.

The future is shaped by an elaborate tangle of long-term trends

How will Belarus look in five years? In what condition will our economy be? Will the demographic situation improve? Will Belarus become a more educated and innovative country? Will our national identity strengthen or weaken? The Index of the Future of Belarus has been created to answer exactly these questions.

SEE THE FORECAST
    Values
    Index
    • improvement
    • stagnation
    • deterioration

    We have chosen 20 indicators affecting the future of Belarus. Our survey of 26 analysts shows that Belarus is in decline or in a state of stagnation with regard to most of these indicators.

    Performance distribution ():

    improvement
    0
    stagnation
    0
    deterioration
    0

    Analysts representing 20 different organizations (including analytical centers, academic institutions and civil society organizations) rated the probability of various scenarios for Belarus from 0% to 100%, the complex of which is a quantitative indicator which we have termed the Index of the Future of Belarus. For example, a result of 1.1 means that the indicator will grow by 10% in comparison with the five-year period immediately preceding the half-decade covered by these surveys. The only exception, when we have not calculated the index, is the growth of the GDP, as in the past five years it was negative (-0.24%).

    In most cases we have not asked outright what will happen to the country in five years, but rather how a specific indicator will look over the next five years on average.

    While quantitative indicators are based on our survey, interpretations (improvement, stagnation or deterioration) are on the conscience of the authors of the Index (Ryhor Astapenia and Andrei Kazakevich).

    Economic Prospects

    GDP Growth

    Gross domestic product, which reflects the value of all goods and services produced in a country, is a boring indicator, but it is more effective than others at measuring the health of the economy. As much as it hurts us to say it, the GDP has certainly not grown significantly. Quite the opposite, it is difficult to keep track of the many crises we have experienced recently.

    Over the next five years experts predict the economy will grow by 1.5% - 3%, which in practice is stagnant – this growth rate would not compensate for the loss caused by the economic crisis and is lower than the global growth.

    Average Salary

    The average salary in Belarus is not only an economic indicator, but also a cultural meme and political talking point. The struggle for "five hundred dollars for all" has lasted a very long time. Unfortunately, although there have been times when the average salary has reached this point, it seems to inevitably come back down.

    Between 2018 and 2022, the average salary in Belarus is likely to be between $ 500-600.

    External Debt

    External debt is perhaps one of the greatest threats to the Belarusian economy. The more dependent on foreign funding Belarus becomes, the less stable our economy will be, especially if the situation in the external environment also worsens.

    In the next five years the external debt is likely to comprise 70-90% of the GDP of Belarus.

    Russia’s Proportion of Belarusian Exports

    Dependence on the Russian market is the bane of Belarusian officials and economists: when Russian purchasing power falls, our exports to Russia may consequently fall (although competition matters as well). Therefore, Belarus is at least formally seeking to diversify its partners for export in order to reduce its dependence on the Russian market.

    It is likely that Russia's share in Belarusian export of goods will decrease slightly: to 35%-40% of the total.

    Number of Countries Receiving more than 5% of Belarusian Exports

    Diversification is one of the most frequently repeated words of the Belarusian establishment. The more significant trade partners we have, the less vulnerable we are to Russian crises (or trade wars).

    The number of countries receiving more than 5% of Belarusian exports is likely to rise to 3-5.

    Nationwide Income in Comparison with the Average Salary in Minsk

    In many countries there is a clear divide between the capital and the regions when it comes to income. However, in Belarus this difference is particularly stark. Minsk absorbs resources from the entire country while the situation in the regions gets worse and worse.

    Nationwide income compared to Minsk is likely to remain at approximately the current level.

    Socio-Demographic Development

    Life Expectancy

    In a broad sense, life expectancy measures the health of society. In Belarus, this time span is not so short, although there is a huge difference between how many years men and women can expect to live. For 2017 babies, the latter can expect to live 10 years longer than the former.

    In the next five years, the life expectancy of Belarusians will continue to increase and will be somewhere between 75 to 80 years.

    Population

    For Belarus, as well as for other countries, demographic load (the ratio of people of working to non-working age) means a lot. If the population decreases, the demographic load will probably increase.

    Unfortunately, we cannot expect Belarus’s population to grow. Most likely the number of inhabitants will decrease.

    Gini Coefficient

    The Gini coefficient shows the difference in income of different social classes: 0 indicates perfect equality, and 1 – perfect inequality. Belarus is as egalitarian as a Scandinavian country according to this indicator.

    According to experts, we should not expect significant disproportion growth between wealthy and poor Belarusians in the next five years.

    Gender Equality

    Our index measures "gender equality” using the Global Gender Gap Index – compiled by the World Economic Forum – which ranks countries according to women's participation in the economy and politics and their access to education and health. According to this index, disparity between men and women is not huge (almost the same as in Lithuania or Spain).

    In the next five years no significant changes are expected. Most likely, Belarus’s rating on the Global Gender Gap Index will improve slightly.

    Minority Rights

    The level of development of a state (and society) is reflected in how prepared it is to accept different minorities. In the pilot edition of the Index, we asked experts to assess on a scale of 1 to 10 the degree to which Belarus respects various minority groups (people with disabilities; sexual, religious and other minorities), and whether we should expect positive changes. Here the future looks bright.

    Current Level of Respect: 8 out of 10

    There are systemic and persistent obstacles for minorities and some social and demographic groups; rights realization is obstructed. Systemic barriers are legislated and implemented in practice.

    Forecasted indicator in 5 years: 6 out of 10

    Minority rights and individual social and demographic groups dissociate themselves. At the same time, restrictions are selective, related to individual areas and activities.

    Data source: survey

    See the entire scale

    1-2. The state is inclusive. The rights of minorities are guaranteed and implemented in practice. Exclusion is absent or insignificant.

    3-4. The state is inclusive to a large extent. Manifestations of exclusion are limited and sporadic.

    5-6. Minority rights and individual social and demographic groups dissociate themselves. At the same time, restrictions are selective, related to individual areas and activities.

    7-8. There are systemic and persistent obstacles for minorities and some social and demographic groups; rights realization is obstructed. Systemic barriers are legislated and implemented in practice.

    9-10. The state has a non-inclusive character. Minorities, particular social and demographic groups, are under significant pressure or constant threat. There have been acts of violence by the state and organized groups.

    Educational and Innovative Potential

    Internal Expenditure on Research and Development

    The amount of state money spent on science clearly shows whether its economic agents see research and development as an engine of the economy. Unfortunately, Belarus is not a country where such expenditures are high. States such as Norway or the Netherlands spend about 2% of GDP on research and development, while Belarus spends 3-4 times less.

    It seems plausible that research expenditures will remain at the same low level.

    Government expenditure on education

    As with research and development expenditures, spending on education shows whether the state sees education as a priority. But unlike the previous indicator, here Belarus does not lag behind the West – it spends about the same percent of gross domestic product as Germany or Poland, for example.

    Unfortunately, it seems that Belarus will spend less than 5% of its GDP on education in the future.

    Number of Belarusian Universities in the top 500

    Belarusian universities really want to rank among the best in the world. This is not only a question of prestige, but also the attractiveness of the educational services market. However, only one Belarusian University – the Belarusian State University – made it to the top 500 in one rating. It got 334th place in the QS World University Rankings.

    Current situation

    The Belarusian State University appears among the top 500 in only one ranking.

    Forecasted indicator in 5 years

    It is expected that within the next five years, the number of Belarusian universities among the top 500 will grow to 2 or 3.

    The Number of Foreign Students

    Unfortunately, many foreign students who come to study in Belarus are not here for a prestigious or high-quality education, but rather to “buy” a diploma. Nevertheless, they bring money to the country which is spent on studying and living expenses in Belarus. They also contribute to the internalisation of Belarusian education.

    It seems that Belarus has already done all it can to attract foreign students: in 2018-2022 they will number some 15-17,000. This slight increase shows that the Belarusian educational market is stagnating when contrasted to the previous growth rate and the global higher education market increase.

    Number of Patent Applications

    The number of applications for patents measures new ideas from scientists. Unfortunately, in recent years, this number has been decreasing in Belarus. Today Belarusians apply for patents 10 times less frequently than Poles (although the size of the population should also be taken into account).

    It seems that this negative trend will continue. The number of patent applications will be around 300-500 annually in the next 5 years.

    Inclusiveness of the State

    Corruption Assessment

    This is not the first decade that Belarus is supposedly fighting against corruption, nor is it the first decade that it has failed in this endeavour, albeit doing better than Ukraine or Russia. Ratings remain significantly lower than our Western neighbors. We combined the ratings of two organisations (Transparency International and Freedom House) to create our own scale from 0 (perfect condition) to 10 (the worst condition). Here is the result.

    It seems that during the next five years we should not expect radical change – Belarusian corruption will remain almost the same.

    National Consolidation and Identity Durability

    National identity is a huge sore point and perhaps our biggest problem. We asked analysts to assess the current state of consolidation and identity and predict at what point we would be in five years. According to the survey, the situation may improve slightly but not in a significant way.

    The current level: 6 out of 10

    National identity is unstable. Competitive interpretation of history, culture and language are formed; there is no clear understanding of differences from other nations. Internal conflict on the issue of national identity has a political character. There is a notable external influence on the formation identity.

    Forecasted indicator in 5 years

    See the entire scale

    1-2. National identity is stable. Holistic interpretation of history, culture and language are formed; there is a clear understanding of differences from other nations. There is no internal conflict on the issue of national identity. There is no external influence on the formation of identity.

    3-4. National identity is stable enough. Differences in the interpretation of history, culture, language and resemblance to neighbors are minor and resemble academic debate. Internal conflict on the issue of national identity is limited to discussions in cultural and intellectual spheres. External influence on identity formation is minor.

    5-6. National identity is unstable. Competitive interpretation of history, culture and language are formed; there is no clear understanding of differences from other nations. Internal conflict on the issue of national identity has a political character. There is a notable external influence on the formation identity.

    7-8. Critical state of national identity. Competitive interpretation of history, culture and language are in conflict and incompatible. The internal conflict on the issue of national identity has a sharp political form. The question of national identity is the main factor of political division and confrontation. External influence is one of the most important factors in identity formation.

    9-10. The collapse of national identity. Individuals prefer to latch on to national identities of neighbouring countries and denigrate competitive interpretations of history, culture, and language. There is acute internal conflict on the issue of national identity with clear tendencies towards separatism. External factors play a defining role in defining national identity formation.

    The Development of E-Government

    Every two years, the United Nations compiles an E-Government Development Index, which ranks countries according to government services available online, telecommunication infrastructure and human capital. Belarus does quite well in the last two indicators and badly in the first, which places it 39th among 193 countries.

    The E-Government Index Indicator of Belarus will remain approximately at the same level in the next five years.

    Status and Conditions of Civil Society Development

    An active civil society is an essential element of democracy. We created an indicator for the non-profit sector based on estimates by USAID and Freedom House on a scale of 1 to 10 (where 1 is a perfect state featuring very favourable conditions for the development of civil society, and 10 is a complex condition with extremely unfavourable conditions for the development of civil society).

    Status and conditions of civil society development in the next five years may remain approximately at the same level or slightly improve.

    About the Index Creators

    Ryhor Astapenia

    Ryhor Astapenia is a founder and chairman of the Center for New Ideas. Ryhor is defending his PhD at the University of Warsaw in November 2018.

    Ryhor Astapenia

    Andrei Kazakevich

    Andrei Kazakevich is a director at the Institute of Political Studies “Political Sphere”. Andrei got his PhD at the University of Vytautas the Great in Kaunas.

    Andrei Kazakevich